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Forecast from the AES “Automotive Semiconductor Demand Forecast 2010-2019” report.

September 25, 2012

The Strategy Analytics Automotive Electronics Service (AES) report, ‘Automotive Semiconductor Demand Forecast 2010-2019’, predicts a surprising 11.5% growth in automotive semiconductor demand for 2012, in view of the more modest industry predictions for growth this year in the total global semiconductor market. The automotive industry megatrends of environment, safety, information and the need for affordable cars for emerging markets will continue to drive good growth opportunities for the automotive semiconductor market, despite the short term market uncertainties. With the global automotive semiconductor market worth $23.7 billion in 2011, these industry imperatives are expected to drive market revenue CAGR of 9.3% over the five-year period 2011 to 2016. Semiconductor demand from vehicle production growth in North America, Japan, Thailand and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), regions this year will more than compensate for the decline observed in Europe, resulting in revenues of $26.4 billion. Expanding adoption of electronically controlled features in both mature and emerging vehicle markets is contributing to the long term growth outlook. AES states that electronics innovations in areas like hybrid and pure electric vehicles, advanced safety, connected car and driver information will be responsible for sustaining long term automotive semiconductor growth.

Semiconductor content per vehicle is forecast to increase to $380 in 2012, an increase of 9% from $350 in 2011. Semiconductor content per vehicle is expected to increase 11% annually between 2009 and 2015, reaching $495 per vehicle at the end of the forecast period, which suggests that the “trickle-down effect” of technology into lower-priced cars will happen at a faster rate than expected a few years ago and that more “green” vehicles, including hybrids and electric automobiles, will be sold. Although hybrid-electric and electric vehicles (HEVs and EVs) currently account for less than 2% of total new vehicle shipments in the U.S. and around the world, the semiconductor content per vehicle is much greater in these vehicles.

From → AES, News

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